Identifying Threats: Using Machine Learning in International Relations (PolMeth)

Identifying Threats: Using Machine Learning in International Relations (PolMeth)

Azusa Katagiri and Eric Min. 2014. “Identifying Threats: Using Machine Learning in International Relations.” Poster presented at the 2014 Summer Methods Meeting. Atlanta, GA.


Azar, Edward E. 1980. “The Conflict and Peace Data Bank (COPDAB) Project.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 24(1): 143-152.

Fearon, James D. 1994. “Domestic Political Audience Costs and the Escalation of International Disputes.” American Political Science Review 88(3): 577-592.

Jervis, Robert. 1976. Perception and Misperception in International Relations. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Sartori, Anne E. 2002. “The Might of the Pen: A Reputational Theory of Communication in International Disputes.” International Organization 56(1): 126-149.

Schelling, Thomas C. 1963. The Strategy of Conflict. New York: Oxford University Press.

Stein, Janice G. 2013. “Threat Perception in International Relations.” In it Oxford Handbook of Political Psychology, Second Edition, eds. Leonie Huddy, David O. Sears, and Jack S. Levy. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

While not cited on our poster, the following source discusses the merits of down-sampling on the training set:

Wei, Qiong and Roland L. Dunbrack Jr. 2013. “The Role of Balanced Training and Testing Data Sets for Binary Classifiers in Bioinformatics.” PLoS ONE 8(7): e67863. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0067863.