Working Papers:

“Negotiation in War.” 2016. Presented at the 2016 Annual Meeting of the Peace Science Society; and the 2016 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association. (Peace Science slides here. Latest draft here.)

“Negotiation in War: The 19.45% Discount.” 2016. Presented at the 2016 Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association. (Slides here.)

“Negotiation in War: The Case of Korea.” 2016. Presented at the 2016 Annual Convention of the International Studies Association. (Slides here.)

“The Effectiveness of Public and Private Threats: A Document-Based Approach.” 2015. Presented at the 2015 Summer Methods Meeting and the 2015 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association. (Latest draft here.)

“Looking for Trouble: Analyzing Search Engine Data during International Crises.” 2015. Presented at the 2015 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association and the 2016 Annual Convention of the International Studies Association. (Poster here (APSA). Slides here (ISA).)

“Identifying Threats: Using Machine Learning in International Relations.” 2014. Presented at the 2014 Summer Methods Meeting. (Latest draft here.)

“Taking Responsibility: When and Why Terrorists Claim Credit for Attacks.” 2013. Presented at the 2013 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association. (Paper here.)

“Explaining Military Relapse.” 2013. Presented at the 2013 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association. Co-authored with Jonathan Chu. (Paper here; please do not cite.)

 

Data:

Autocracies of the World, 1950-2012. With Beatriz Magaloni and Jonathan Chu. A regime dataset that classifies all country-years from 1950-2012 by different forms of autocratic rule. Introduces a novel form of measuring personalist rule across all autocracies and makes several corrections to extant regime classification data. (Site with data and codebook here.)