Working Papers:

“Negotiation in War: The 19.45% Discount.” (Latest draft here.)

“Negotiation as an Instrument of War.” (Latest draft here.)

“Endogenizing the Costs of Conflict: A Text-Based Application to the Korean War.” (Latest draft here.)

“Reassessing the Informational and Ripeness Theories of War.” (Currently being revised for resubmission; e-mail for latest draft)

“The Effectiveness of Public and Private Threats: A Document-Based Approach.” With Azusa Katagiri. (Latest draft here.)

“Looking for Trouble: Analyzing Search Engine Data during International Crises.” With Lizhi Liu. (Latest draft here.)

“Identifying Threats: Using Machine Learning in International Relations.” With Azusa Katagiri. (Latest draft here.)

“Taking Responsibility: When and Why Terrorists Claim Credit for Attacks.” (Paper here.)

“Explaining Military Relapse.” 2013. With Jonathan Chu. (Paper here; please do not cite.)



Autocracies of the World, 1950-2012. With Beatriz Magaloni and Jonathan Chu. A regime dataset that classifies all country-years from 1950-2012 by different forms of autocratic rule. Introduces a novel form of measuring personalist rule across all autocracies and makes several corrections to extant regime classification data. (Site with data and codebook here.)